"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." ~ George Orwell
"The great masses of the people…will more easily fall victims to a big lie than to a small one." ~ Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf, 1933
Research:
‘The best leading indicator of crises in emerging markets is loan growth greater than two times GDP growth two years earlier.’ ~ Eichengreen
"The average breaking point for countries that finance themselves externally occurs at approximately 4.2x debt/revenue." Rogoff and Reinhart
‘Banking crises often lead debt crises’ ~ Rogoff and Reinhart 
‘Before the 15 hyperinflations, all had large government public investment programs, populist policies, and excessive fiscal deficits.’ ~ historysquared
Inflation happens quickly:
- In 1945, inflation was 2 percent, but within two years, that level hit 14 percent.
- Inflation went from 1 percent in 1915 to 7 percent in 1916 to 17 percent in 1917. – Fed came into existence in 1914
‘Trade linkages are the most important transmission mechanism for contagion’ ~ Forbes (2000b)
Changes in dealer repos forecast changes in financial market risk – “Liquidity and Leverage” (Adrian and Shin, 2009) $VIX $study
Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns ~ amazon
It’s easy to confuse asset #inflation or higher GDP growth with rising standards of living, but adding this to the reading list. It’s an especially good check for perma-bears
Liquidity shocks – why they happen ~ Economist
The study concludes that dealers seek to reduce on a news shock risk causing sudden loss of liquidity. That’s true, buy forced sales amid margin calls deserves a mention
FTSE – a Historical Perspective –
ran right through several crises, fell amid seemingly benign events
U.S.
C&I loans had been growing 10-20% amid #operationnewbubble, this indicator led the recent tightening ~ twitter
On an annualized basis, the prices of frequently purchased goods rose nearly 13 percent last month. ~ AEIR 
World:
World Trade Volume Slips ~ WSJ
More on Japan’s fiscal cliff issue ~ FT
Eclectica’s Hugh Hendry bearish on China (Video) ~ Economist
Bubble hunting: Global House Price Performances by Region ~ Knight Frank
Global Home Price Valuation Relative to Affordability – Deutsche Bank (a little dated) – long/short strategy
Junk Bond Defaults – 1990-2011 – $JNK ~ Fitch 
Foreign purchases of U.K. Guilts. If this reverses… $GBPUSD ~ twitter
Japanese Government Revenues vs Expenditures ~ CFA institute
Japan’s Own ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Threatens to Roil JGBs –~ WSJ
A reversal in #Japan’s Current Account from #China exports could be a trigger for a debt/currency crisis
China:
Li Keqiang to push forward a tax cut
good news out of #China for change
The potential for a smooth transition in China’s model: ~ twitter
"No economy over the past 100 years has made a smooth transition from a capital and labour mobilisation model to a productivity-driven model. Each one has suffered from what Schumpeter called ‘waves of creative destruction’; the UK in the 1930s and 1940s, the US in the late 1960s and 1970s, Russia in the 1970s and 1980s, Japan and Germany in the 1970s, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore in the 1990s, Brazil in the 1980s and 1990s."
Entrenched special interests cited.
China inventory vs sales (2000-2011) – too much, way too soon ~ twitter
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