"If you give away enough free money, eventually people are going to find something to do with it." ~ Dylan Grice
Ponzi projects: cash flow less than servicing costs, profits from selling appreciating assets, insensitive to rising interest rates ~ Minksy
Black Monday Recap – HistorySquared
Bank capital adequacy, narrow liquidity ratios, and lagged house price growth forecast bank crises ~ Barrell, Davis, Karim, Liadze (2010)
Currency crises lead to rapid reversals to the current account (deficit to surplus) Milesi-Ferretti, Razin (1998)
that’s one way to do it, unhealthy as it is.
How Do You Spot A Genius? ~ Scientific American
The 50 greatest #war films of all time ~ TimeOut
Columbia Data Science course, week 7: talk with Hunch CEO ~ mathbabe.org
The psychology of hindsight bias ~ PsychScience
Aggregate demand = income + change in debt, says Steve Keen
So, right now, when Keynesians say we need to boost aggregate demand, they are saying we need to solve a problem of too much debt, with more debt.
Amex says customers increased debt 8%.
Keynesians rejoice. What are the odds income keeps pace with this?
Variations in state government assistance #infographic ~ Columbia Data Science Blog
Eurozone on Track to Be the Shortest Currency Union in History, says Felix Zulauf ~ CFAInstitute
- Zulauf doubts central bankers can manage to avoid the 5% to 7% inflation that would trigger a bond crisis
Canada Household Debt Approaches US Bubble Levels ~ Mish
CFA Poll results: how long do you think low rates can persist ~ CFAInstitute
Deutsche Bank sees 6-8% GDP growth in Asian Frontier markets – Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Bangladesh (PDF) ~ Deutsche Bank
Foreigners under attack In Greece ~ businessinsider
Wasn’t the $EURUSD meant to unify and prevent violence? that’s working out well.
List by Country: Current Account Surplus and Deficits to GDP ~ tradingeconomics
Jeremy Grantham: Timber Investments Set To Soar (NASDAQ:WOOD, NYSE:WY, NYSE:PLC) | ETF DAILY NEWS
China had about 10.4T yuan in wealth management products, about 11.5% of total bank deposits, at the end of June this year ~ Charlene Chu,
Bank of China Chair Xiao Gang warns of systemic risk from shadow banking ~ the Diplomat
Shocking, would be akin to a Morgan Stanley CEO warning in 2007, which never happened of course.
China Investment Corp.’s Gao Xiqing does an admirable job laying out the bullish case for China ~ CFAInstitute
Sales of China Wealth Management Products soared 43% 1H of 2012 to 12.14T yuan ($1.9 trillion). ~ CN Benefit
similar to CDOs & CLOs
Inter-bank China loans account for 43% of total outstanding loans, 70% higher than at the end of 2009, banks rollover debt to avoid NPLs
It’s only going to take one major bankruptcy in China’s banking system, then no one will lend to each other, then it ends
China’s fixed asset "investment" rises 20.5% in the 1st nine months ~ xinhua
bubbles can grow bigger #chinaisagiantenron
Profits in Chinese SOEs are down 16%; Excavator sales down 35%, says Adrian Mowat, JP Morgan, who is concerned about future employment
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