"The State is the great fiction through which everyone endeavours to live at the expense of everyone else." ~ Frédéric Bastiat
"The worst form of inequality is to try to make unequal things equal." ~ Aristotle
political patronage: "the use of state resources to reward individuals for their electoral support" ~ wiki
"This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when he first appears he is a protector." ~ Plato
Research:
Charts: 803 Years Of Global Inflation ~ ZeroHedge
‘Regressions on exchange rate movements on inflation differentials yields have little explanatory power’ ~ JP Morgan
- a 1% increase in relative investment income raises the REER by 0.2%
- a 1% increase in relative debt/GDP lowers the REER by 0.2%
- a 1% increase in productivity raises the REER by 0.6%
- a 1% increase in a country’s terms of trade relative to to other trading partners raises the REER by 0.34%
Study: FX forecasters often get direction correct, but underestimate magnitude, due to unwillingness to stand apart from crowd ~ JPM
Cato’s paper on hyperinflations ~ Cato
Day Time vs Night Time Volatility ~ Market Sci
Milton Friedman: national health care makes doctors government employees, creates long lines, results in inferior service – 34 min mark
Ultra Easy Monetary Policy and the Law of Unintended Consequences ~ Dallas Fed/ BIS’ White – No mention of $JNK bond bubble
Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla says technology will replace 80% of doctors ~ VentureBeat – health care bill will accelerate this
Young men who are agreeable— more cooperative and place greater value on relationships—earn 20% less than their peers ~HBR
"Macro economic models typically assume that there will always be enough credit in the financial system." ~ Bloomberg on FRB Richmond study
Inflation:
Gas prices in the U.S. are up to $3.75 from $3.48 a year ago or +7.8%, but there is no inflation
In the last two months, Corn prices have surged nearly 55%, while soy prices added 30% @federalreserve waging foreign policy
The cost of corn has shot up 174% since July of last year in the Southeast Africa nation of Malawi
Global milk prices have doubled over the last two years.
Nationwide home prices increases 3.8% y/y in July 2012 ~ Core Logic
U.S.:
U.S. Housing: Inventory down 23% year-over-year in early September ~ Calculated Risk
Wells Fargo has third of mortgage market ~SF Gate – effectively backstopped by guv, taxpayer – loans surging ~ inflation
The Republicans to control the Senate after 2012 Congressional Elections = 53.7% @Intrade
If the economy grew at 3% instead of 2% that’s $2.5 trillion more in revenue, says the controversial Grover Norquist
Fed officials confirm they are using the "Marginal Expected Shortfall" approach developed by Robert Engle
GDP forecasts from a broad spectrum of companies ~ Consensus Economics – 2013 GDP estimates seem high
Peter Schiff warns of interest rate spike – "The real fiscal cliff" ~ Washington Times
World:
Central-Bank Gold Buying Seen rising 34%, reaching 493 Tons in 2012 ~ Thomson Reuters GFMS ~ Bloomberg – not peanuts $GLD
Interactive World Debt Chart by TheEconomist – Great link, seldom do you see a comprehensive view, like the hidden debt in the banking or corporate sector.
Brinkmanship as Spain warns over bail-out terms ~ UK Telegraph
A poll showed Socialist President Francois Hollande is France’s most unpopular leader ever at the 100 day mark – 68% pessimistic on future.
Germany’s debt grew by 390 billion euros ($490 billion) from bailouts – not including Spain ~ Bloomberg – will ECB make them whole?
Merkel blames markets for government overspending ~@BW
France may increase personal income taxes by about 2%, Le Figaro reported – counterproductive, I’m looking to short French debt
Allocations to non G-4 countries, AUD, NZD, CAD has more than doubled over the past year. ~ $JPM ~ hot money/carry trade, prone to reversals
Australia Sales Drop by Most Since ’10 ~ Bloomberg long held negative view becoming validated ~ historysquared
Australia and iron ore ~ Zero Hedge
‘It is cheaper for the [Australian] government to borrow for a decade than for banks to borrow overnight.’ ~ inversions are never good.
"Over the long term, $AUDUSD tracks the trade surplus reasonably closely as export earnings are repatriated" ~ Will it catch up to Iron Ore?
Norway’s credit growth rose to 7.2% in July, boosting household debt to 200 percent of disposable incomes next year
Norwegian Real Estate Brokers say concentration on currency and exports has led to a real estate bubble ~ Bloomberg
Citi: how to invest in petrostates ~ beyondbrics
Jim Rogers: India Can’t Overcome Its Growth Issues ~ businessinsider – this from a China uber bull
China:
Bienville Capital is using options to bet against the Yuan, betting volatility will increase. it sounds like variance swaps or equivalent
Charlene Chu says liquidity measures, like Chinese market interest rates and slowing loan growth, point to credit crunch ~ The Economist
The Chinese banking system is among the most thinly capitalized in emerging markets (ratio of equity to assets is 6%) ~ The Economist
Roberto Benelli, IMF: a shift of USD 100B shift in China’s FX reserves to $EEM bonds would push US yields up 12bps, reduce EEM yields 48bps
According to China Business News, the Chinese steel industry lost roughly 1.98B yuan in July
China’s commercial bank banks have $400 billion out to the Steel industry. ~ macroman – so, screwed
China’s Railway Ministry Posts $1.4 Billion Loss – one of my best calls ever, I predicted shody workmanship lead to wreck, bankruptcy
Passenger Rail proposals bring to mind the Simpsons monorail episode – A salesman gets Springfield all juiced up, then it bankrupts the city
China’s political system is not a positive; it will likely collapse like USSR before long. You likely know more of India’s Sep 04, 2012 
Popularity: 3% [?]