Political Uncertainty Index Near Highs; Data Mining Alternative to U.S. Polls; China’s Shadow Banking Market

Research:

"Monetary Overhang Will Continue To Create Bubbles" – Seeking Alpha ~ correct, like in Germany

Volatility in Import-Export Statistics is a Sovereign Credit Risk Indicator ~ historysquared

Election Cycles Increase Probabilities of Market Crises ~ historysquared

US:

"Obama leading in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania" ~ NY Times 

Scientists go beyond the polls to forecast U.S. election ~ Reuters

• The most accurate data scientist of 2008, Carl Klarner of Indiana State University, sees Obama winning 51.3 percent of the vote. He gives the president a 57 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.

Nice interactive chart, puts indicators in ranges (90% of the time in blue) ~ Russell

Droughts in Charts (1896-2012) ~ NY Times ~ goes back further

World:

Global Risks 2012 Seventh Edition ~ WEC

Merkel Allies Harden Opposition to Granting ESM Bank License ~ Bloomberg - tomorrow will be different, day after too. These guys have zero credibility

ECB likely to monetize the debt ~ FT

Greece’s debt restructuring the largest since 1970, interactive chart ~ UK Guardian

2012 World Economic Freedom Levels: Heat Map for Continents and Countries: ~ Heritage – data available

China:

"The apartments built in Shanghai in the past decade alone would fill more than 800 Empire State Buildings" ~ WSJ

"Growth in wealth products leaves China non-state banks exposed to liquidity risk" ~ Risk.net

• interest rate deregulation has sparked competition for deposits" ~ R&R cite liberalization as a pre-crisis indicator
• wealth management products stood at an estimated 10.4 trillion yuan (US$1.6 trillion), or 11.5% of total deposits" ~ Fitch
• some wealth management products use repacked distressed debt as the underlying instruments, others equity prices – not good, reminiscent of mortgages underlying CDOs

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Tagged as: political uncertainty index