"There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency." ~ John Maynard Keynes
Research:
Curry spice, omega-3 fatty acid allegedly preserve walking ability following spinal-cord injury ~ UCLA
Between 2000 and 2006, property prices rose 110% vs income growth of 40%, a tip off the boom was unsustainable
Oil prices increased 66% between September 2010 and April 2011, roughly lining up with QE2
Countries with reserves to GDP ratio below 5% pay 523bps on their CDS, vs 243bps for those with ratios rounding to 243bps – Bloomberg
Countries with more than $500 billion in reserves: Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, China, South Korea, Russia, and Japan at 20% of GDP -Bloomberg
Highest Marginal Income Tax Rate During the Great Depression - But Mr. Bernanke leads us to believe it was a yellow rock, not a Fed induced credit bubble in the Roaring 20s, hiking taxes, a tarriff act, legalized price collusion in exchange for union jobs, etc, etc. ~ Twitter
· 37 year Study Shows Spending Cuts, Not Tax Increases, Solve Debt, Best for Growth, Bond, Stock Markets ~ historysquared
· The UCLA study cites boost taxes in 1933, and various FDR measures that permitted companies to collude on price for union labor concessions
· Christina Romer Studies the Impact of Tax Hikes on Growth ~ historysquared
- "the tax increases have a large negative effect on investment, and a much lesser impact on consumption and imports." – even worse
- This is the equivalent to collecting $160 billion in taxes, lose 480 billion in Real GDP next three years ~Christina Romer. former Obama CEA and Berkley economist
US:
"Each additional year of life expectancy increases pension liabilities by 3-4%” ~ IMF (PDF)
Feds to pay contractor execs up to $763,029 –USA Today
· Home sales are up 15% from the previous year, says Douglas Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae to Bloomberg
· The number of new homes completed for sale is at an all time low, reducing the stock of available homes
· "Improvement in employment and consumer confidence is finally translating…" ~ Lennar, homebuilder $LEN
· "Inputs costs increased at the highest rate in three decades" ~ General Mills $GIS ~ Bloomberg
· U.S. Savings rate fell to 3.5% from 6%
· Rush to Learn Mandarin, whatever it takes ~ The Economist
· FDR’s policies prolonged Depression by 7 years, UCLA economists calculate ~ UCLA
· Civilian Population, Labor Force, Employed ~ Advisor Perspectives – Policy has made working optional
· "Eyes and Biometric data and the Afghan war ~ Economist technology is oft developed for war, but then deployed at home,like drones
World:
Spending across Europe still high, and collectively rising ~ twitter
· Kyle Bass other names avoiding bets in the Eurozone ~ DailyBeast
· "French politics: Ooops, the coffers are empty" ~Socialist warns on debt spiral ~ Economist I like French CDS and bond shorts here
· Monti cut 4 billion, Italy’s 10 year bond yield fell 43bps, and his approval rating improved
· India, Thailand, and Indonesia are among the 15 countries with the largest y/y fall in reserves, but Thailand’s reserve to gdp ratio is 43% vs India and Indonesia’s 15%
· Australia’s home building approvals rose 27.3% in May – more inventory into a housing bubble
· Denmark is unwilling to sing up fora European banking authority, said the Economy minister.
· Turkey is posting inflation of 8.87% in June vs GDP Growth of just over 3.2% ~ Bloomberg not good
· 52 total lawmakers, including Ichiiro Ozawa, left DPJ over consumption tax to form new party.-Will still pass and fail to solve debt problem
China:
· Chinese banks derive more than 80% of profits from the spread between deposit and lending rates, 150bps narrower following cuts ~ Bloomberg
· Hong Kong real estate is up 80% since 2008, and outstanding mortgages 40%, but Hong Kong incomes are up only 14% ~ Bloomberg
· Chinese sales of shorter dated debt more than tripled to 585 billion yuan ~ Bloomberg
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