Research:
Diesel exhaust fumes cause lung and bladder cancer, WHO says ~ Reuters
‘One powerful model for predicting recession 4 quarters out is the spread between the 10-year Treasury note and the 3-month T-bill’ ~Tony Crescenzi
The probability of a recession go to 70% with the 3mo/10yr spread at -1.46, and 90% at -2.40. ~ (Estrella Miskhin) (in zero bound, need to look at shifts)
The probability of a currency crisis within 12 months is 30% when domestic real interest rates are positive and extreme ~ SSRN
Bloomberg Webinar on Fixed Income ETFs $$ ~ Bloomberg Markets
Ray Dalio interview from “The Alpha Masters” ~ scribd
Energy research ~ Peters & Co
‘Mayfair/London were transformed into office districts when bombing destroyed London’s financial district in WWII’- great, makes one feel good about living in NY.
US:
Despite limited Greek exposure, it takes just one institution for credit markets to seize up, says @SallieKrawcheck ~ Reuters HedgeWorld
World:
Spanish 10-year government bonds ~ FT
Behavioral Macro: Germany is pot committed ~ Mark Dow
New preface to Charles Kindleberger, The World in Depression 1929-1939 ~ Voxeu
China:
Fitch’s Chu Says Capital Account and Interest Liberalization Poses risk to Chinese banks ~ Bloomberg
China’s Growing Whisky Bubble ~ Deal Journal
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