Money Management; California Still in Trouble; European Disunion

May 15, 2012


“When it becomes serious, you have to lie.” ~ Jean Claude Juncker

“I don’t envisage, not even for one second, Greece leaving the euro area. This is nonsense. This is propaganda.” ~ Jean Claude Junker

“I’m not upset that you lied to me, I’m upset that from now on I can’t believe you.” ~ Friedrich Nietzsche


Heavy call buying of long-dated Eurodollar futures reflect a view that the yield curve will continue to flatten ~ twitter

Large put spread purchased on $JNK bond ETF ~ optionmonster - #operationnewbubble

Goldman-Bred Neuroscientist Tracks Testosterone Trading ~ Bloomberg 

Internet stock valuations ~ View from Blue Ridge  

  • “Most strikingly, the growth rates begin to come down hard even at the point that a company hits 20-30% market penetration.” 

Notes from the Peter Thiel startup class ~ Blake Masters

Howard Marks on Contrarianism ~ market folly  

Fixed fractional (percentage of account size) vs fixed ratio (percentage of estimated drawdown) position sizing ~ truth about trading

Central Banking:

On June 2nd, 1990, banks in Argentina were offering large depositors 600% interest per month

Tom McClellan Chart on gold – says due for bounce ~ Bloomberg’s Adam Johnson

Devaluation Is No Euro Panacea ~ WSJ  


California Ugly – WSJ  

  • Since 2009, the flight of businesses out of California has increased fivefold ~ Joeseph Vranich 
  • California revenues come in 20% below expectations; Brown seeks to raise taxes, threatens cuts to school, medical over bloated government 

The median sales price in Miami Miami-Dade County rose 14 percent ~ World Property Channelmainstream media is so late, housing is booming all over  

Financial services firms are being hit with 60 rule changes every working day. WSJboom time, for lawyers


UK has enacted all tax hikes, but only 30% of planned cuts ~ this failure was predictable, see study – historysquared

SocGen poll: Will Greece Leave? Yes 74.6% Will the EUR survive as a currency? Yes 95% ~ Given the history of monetary unions and currency pegs, the odds of a breakup are certainly higher than 5% 

Grexit and the euro: an exercise in guesswork ~ FT AlphavilleIf weaker members leave, shouldn’t the $EURUSD rally?  

Denmark will not support newly elected French President Francois Hollande’s plan for a growth package for Europe ~ Politiken – disunion 

Canada’s bubble continues to grow, condo sales up 10% ~ globeandmail

2011 Global Real Estate Price Increases puts new contenders on bubble watch ~ Kenya - Knight Frank

Study shows Iranian people favor freedom over fundamentalist regime ~ WSJregime nearly toppled a few years ago 


China’s investment boom starts to unravel ~ WSJrail, electricity, credit growth sinking

China’s economic data disaster ~ FT Alphaville

Trade between Japan, China, and South Korea hit $690 billion in 2009, up from $130 billion ~ WSJcompare vs South Sea claims 

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