FXCM, a large currency broker, studied twelve million trades placed by several thousand retail traders. Customers are correct 60 percent of the time; however, they average 52bps on winning trades, compared to 94 pips on losing trades. The study also found profits are correlated with higher volatility currency pairs.
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[...] Pretty good size sample. The results may be worth considering, can be found here: http://historysquared.com/2012/04/27/poor-risk-reward-trades-doom-retail-traders-in-currency-market-... [...]
[...] recent study of customer trades by FXCM (a large online retail forex broker) found that its customers are often right on market direction [...]