Home Price Valuations; Dollar, Devaluations, and War; Jingoism, Deposits in China

April 14, 2012

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"The history of the U.S. dollar is linked to U.S. involvement in a series of wars." ~ Ron Hera; tradewar would likely be first

"Buying developed market sovereign bonds is akin to picking up nickels in front of a steamroller" ~ HS, Japan has 1% upside, and 99% downside risk

"The 15 hyperinflations in the 20th century, all had large government spending driven by public investment programs and populist policies’  ~ HistorySquared

  • Civil wars, revolution, or deep social unrest often ignite hyperinflation, but central banks had already spread the kerosone

Research:

backwardation strategy #ETF, #tradingsystem ~ seekingalpha

"Why Nations Fail" on extractive politicians ~ economist mag

Do More in Less Time: Tips From an Efficiency Expert ~ Inc

Lesson for life: Famed boxing trainer Freddie Roach shows the basics of taking a Punch ~ cnbc

Causes and Patterns of Hyperinflation in the 20th Century ~  HistorySquared $$ 

Computer energy efficiency is following Moore’s law allowing for the usage of more sensors ~  Technology Review

Why YouTube Has Become an Important Intelligence Source ~ bloomberg

US:

Obama sold Treasury bonds from his portfolio $TLT ~ bloomberg 

Manhattan Apartment Rents Approach Peak as Demand Surges ~ bloomberg; right, there’s no inflation

The "Buffett Rule" raises $31 billion to pay for a $8.3 trillion cumulative budget deficit accumulated ~ zerohedge

Morgan Stanley says higher oil prices are starting to impact the market. twitter

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Trade Policy Disaster: Lessons from the 1930s ~ HistorySquared

In July of 1962, Americans were forbidden by then president Kennedy to own gold abroad by Executive Order 11037 

Crushing debts, economic revolutions, & extraordinary popular delusions? Britain on eve of Industrial Revolution ~ SSRN (PDF); interesting perspective, makes a bullish case for the U.S.

Naill Ferguson warns of sudden collapse of American ‘empire’ aspen daily news  ~ both this, and the previous article make the same points, but come to different conclusions.

  • “I think this is a problem that is going to go live really soon,” Ferguson said. “In that sense, I mean within the next two years. 

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nice use of the ggplot R graphical package ~ R bloggers

Buy a House: It’s Much Cheaper Than Renting slate, abnormalreturns

Central Banking:

Pimco’s El-Erian "What Happens If Central Banks Fail?" ~ Pimco

Keynesian "Easy Money" Is Nothing But Currency Devaluation – Forbes

World:

Price of Oil 1946-2012 ~ twitter; Right, there’s no inflation

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Spanish Government Plans Ban On Online Protest Organizing – ibtimes ~ the hubris of policy makers is stupefying 

Sweden’s secret recipe ~ Spectator ~ too bad they have a housing bubble 

Sweden Finance Minister cut taxes permanently in response to crises, while Spain, Portugal, and the UK pushed through gov stimulus 

Time to Exit Emerging Markets? ishares blog; no, last year was the time. Still no mention of percolating credit bubbles.

Stratfor argues Iran wants regional dominance more than nuclear weapons ~ youtube; just maybe they want affordable energy? 

Brazil’s "gringo" problem: Brazilintel ~ It seems jingoism, with a hint of racism, is rising globally 

In the last week, read HTC is getting crushed by Samsung, Apple uses Samsung screens, and now see this patent chart ~ twitter

Internet usage and global comparison chart.

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China:

#bankrun: “Deposit flight (from Chinese Banks) will limit banks’ ability to extend lending and support economic growth.” ~ bloomberg

"China accounts for about 50% of all global credit creation" ~ Bridgewater

Chinese Officialdom Indulges bloomberg

$Vale’s Ore Ships Stayed in Philippines Up to a Month bloomberg yet, yesterday they say there is demand for 100 supertankers 

Can China avoid a hard landing – 39.1% yes, 60.9% no 1358 votes ~ creditwritedowns; China is experiencing a hard landing

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