Truthiness and Rumors, Certificates of Confiscation, Japan’s Terms of Trade

April 5, 2012

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"It’s bad to be unhedged, it’s worse to be mishedged." ~ Ari Bergman 

"Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist". – Economist Kenneth Boulding 

"Men are likely to forget in the heat of action where their best interests lie and let their emotions carry them away." from The Maltese Falcon  (1941)

truthiness: preferring concepts or facts one wishes to be true, rather than concepts or facts known to be true. ~ Rumors are a form of truthiness and can clue one in on the underlying desires of society on whole.  ~ HS

Streisand effect: an attempt to hide a piece of information, but has the unintended consequence of spreading the information more widely

US:

Foreign banks hold about $5.5 trillion of U.S. assets and U.S. banks have $2.5 trillion of foreign assets – Lagarde bloomberg

Left unchanged, the fiscal cliff will be 3% of GDP, according to Brevan Howard. JP Morgan sees it a little differently, but still serious.

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Watching loan growth indicators – C&I loan growth had been rising double digits, while a survey of loan officers suggest a change to tightening:

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"US hedge funds will, for the first time, be able to solicit investors freely and advertise their funds through mass media channels"

China:

Incentives Chinese Bank Create Abnormal Profits, Followed by Large Non Performing loans ~ HistorySquared

“The Revenge of Wen Jiabao – Foreign Policy -

  • Wen Jiabo politically executes Bo Xilai for decades of opposition 
  • "opening and reform" coupled with uncompromising political control is crumbling under the weight of inequality, corruption, and mistrust.
  • A China pastime is to spread rumors, true and false, that challenge the official script of government officials and state-propaganda organs.

On Rumors, Repression and Digital Disruption in #China: Opening Pandora’s Inbox of Truthiness? irevolution

Central Banking:

$Fed missed the housing bubble. Europe missed the sovereign debt crisis. Why does the Fed, or anyone else, believe they’ll get inflation right?

Monetary Morphine addicts coming down, hears dealer out of stock for a few months. bloomberg.

Arbitrary manipulation, distorted prices, hubris prompting Congress to step up oversight over Fed ~ Financial Sense

World:

The below chart is actually a reason to be optimistic on Italy; now, if the ECB would stop enabling the status quo, Italian politicians would actually enact reform. 

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Financial Repression, banks as tax collectors. and capital controls. Post-war financial repression is back ~ moneyweek.

  • By the end of the bond bear market in 1980, Treasury Bonds were called “certificates of confiscation”. 

Reversal in Japan’s terms of trade could be the pin to pop Japan’s debt bubble. $USDJPY ibtimes

Australia’s Export Slump amid 16 percent drop in coal shipments and a 10 percent decline in metals bloomberg $AUDUSD 

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