The privatization of SOEs, increased political freedom, reduced financial repression, and a reduction of import taxes are among the reforms one needs to see out of China before becoming positive on the country’s outlook. These steps are inevitable, and will occur either voluntarily, or amid a Russia style crises. Former China Banking Regulation Commission chairman, Liu Mingkang, says as much in a recent interview.
”I’ve said in the past, that this economic crisis will spread from the United States to Europe and finally land in Asia. Now we can see that it’s already begun influencing Asia.
“The vitality of the Chinese economy is being stifled by SOEs, especially central-level, or top, SOEs, and this is borne out by research. In 2010, the capital of 102 central-level SOEs was equivalent to 61.4 percent of GDP, and their earnings equaled 42.2 percent of GDP.”
“The second national economic census taken in 2008 reported profits of nearly 900 billion yuan by finance industry central-level SOEs. Banks accounted for 64 percent of that profit.”
“These gargantuan SOEs have not only failed to lead us toward a new stage of development, but they have actually inhibited the vitality of the Chinese economy by distorting resource allocation.”
“Wang recommends that Beijing begin a privatization process to wean SOEs from their addiction to excessively cheap capital, monopoly power, and distorted governance. This, he says, will force the SOEs to address and resolve their role in wasting capital, stifling innovation, and concentrating wealth. It will also allow China to grow in a much healthier and balanced way.”
“I have always thought that the least painful way for China to rebalance its economy requires that it radically redistribute income and wealth away from the state sector and to the household sector. There are many ways this can happen, some better and some worse, but privatizing SOEs and using the proceeds to clean up the banks (whose Non-Perfgorming-Loans are a future claim on households), to shore up the social safety net, and to permit SME’s more scope in which to compete is, in my opinion, the most efficient ways to do so. It would also weaken sectors that are able to restrain change in the economy.”
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