US Sovereign Debt Tipping Point Scenarios, Symposium by George Mason University

January 26, 2012

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The US has ample time to delay, and even avoid a debt crises, but such as in life, it often takes a crisis to force a change in behavior.

On balance, the professors do not seem to believe the government can default via inflation, believing interest rates will spiral out of control first. But what if the Fed institutes a firm cap on long term interest rates, pledging to purchase all securities in excess of say 2%? This is very plausible.

Regardless, Japan will remain a good template for future US policy, and potential scenarios. 

US Sovereign Debt Crises, Tipping Point Scenarios

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