General McCaffrey matriculated to 4 stars, before retiring to start a consultancy, mccaffreyassociates. He recently gave a presentation on the Iranian imbroglio.
- A basic axiom of military operations starts with an assessment of enemy capabilities, not enemy intentions.
- Contrary to widespread beliefs, Iran’s three Kilo Class silent subs and as many as 19 other subs, mean the Navy has the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz and sink a US ship.
- 50% of China’s oil imports and 75% of Japanese imports travel through Strait of Hormuz.
- US may be miscalculating the probability of a serious attack by Iran; they are in a desperate situation domestically and need nuclear energy.
- Poll below is thought provoking.
Could we see a General as a President at some point?
Whenever discussing Iran, it’s important to remember that the government is not stable. The Iranian government tops at least one “most likely to be overthrown” list.
Source: Scribd
The Outlook for a Confrontation with Iran
Handicapping an Attack on Iran
Morgan Stanley Takes a Look at Iran and Previous Oil Price Spikes
Predicting Political Hotspots: Professors’ Global Model Forecasts Civil Unrest Against Governments
Popularity: 3% [?]
Generals have led the US three times already — Washington, Grant, and Eisenhower. That it would happen again is not unlikely. People admire discipline when times are disorderly — hence the high-ish scores for the police and military.
As for Iran, the government there is definitely not secure. My guess is every $1 spent covertly on Iran policy is worth $10 spent on military action.
Indeed, we will likely be in dark geopolitical times should a General be elected, or if not, soon would be.