Social Unrest Model Updated

January 5, 2012

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The “Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism Model of Domestic Political Violence Forecast” has been incredibly prescient both in sample and out of sample.

The professors updated their model for 2011-2015, and came out with a short term model as well. Factors include: rising food prices, degree of oppression, bailouts of non government entities, and ability to mobilize.

The model successfully forecast civil unrest in Peru, Ireland, Ecuador, Italy, Tunisia, and Egypt. Russia was also high on the list, allowing one to forecast some push back against Putin’s election campaign, although it wasn’t a “hit” per se, yet.

The UK is a stunner, topping the list. While no one expects the government to be toppled, violence against the government could influence policy, either through more oppression (which will lead to more violence according to the model), or policy change.

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