Former hedge fund manger Victor Niederhoffer had a 2011 contest with a $4,000 prize.
1. 5 yr Credit Default Swaps on:
- +103.77% : French Gov CDS
- +72.26% : German Gov CDS
- +101.92% : Italian Gov CDS :
2. Short the Euro + Far OTM put options near parity
- +283 pips : 1.3224 – 1.2941, not great: bank repatriation hurt and spot FX is poor for tail event trades.
3. Long Put X-Warrants or CDS on any Hong Kong or Chinese Property Developer
- +103.20% (20.64% X 5 for warrant use) Shanghai Property Index, (2759.58-2190.11):
3a. or Credit Default Swaps Chinese 5 year Government Debt
- +117.77%: China Gov CDS
Extra Credit:
- + 214.25% : Short Copper:
- 4.4455-3.4695 NYMEX Copper HG
- ($111,375 – $86,725) = $24,650.00
- Short Iron Ore, Cement, similar declines
- + 52% : Short Japanese Industrials via CDS
- Hugh Hendry’s fund is up and can be a proxy, but Iron Ore Swaps would have been better and boost this rate considerably
- +32.96% peak, but plunged -60.80% below open : Cleveland Biosciences (CBLI)
- Although unsuccessful, CBLI spiked higher amid the Japanese Nuclear Meltdown, serving its purpose as a hedge
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