First pointed to back in January, Turkey’s credit growth puts the country at risk of a banking crises, given rapid credit growth is the single best predictor of a crises.
A Morgan Stanley study showed a trade deficit that hovers around double digits puts Turkey at the most risk of an external funding crises over the next 12 months.
Sidar Global Advisors agrees. “The current account deficit is a key indicator for Turkey`s economic performance, as it was a major factor triggering previous economic crises in 1980, 1993, 1997 and 2001.”
The Domestic Political Violence Forecasting Model has Turkey as the 6th most likely to experience violence against government.
Indicators of negative sentiment is shown to lead uprisings, and consumer sentiment recently hit a 10 month low.
While everyone is focused on Europe, risks of a crises in China, Brazil, Indonesia, India, and Hong Kong will begin to take center stage.
If Europe, US, and Japan’s growth rates are hampered by massive debt, and leading emerging markets have credit bubble’s poised to pop, where will the global growth come from?
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