Turkey At Risk of Major Crises, Highlights Global Growth Problems

September 17, 2011


First pointed to back in January, Turkey’s credit growth puts the country at risk of a banking crises, given rapid credit growth is the single best predictor of a crises.

A Morgan Stanley study showed a trade deficit that hovers around double digits puts Turkey at the most risk of an external funding crises over the next 12 months.

Sidar Global Advisors agrees. “The current account deficit is a key indicator for Turkey`s economic performance, as it was a major  factor triggering previous economic crises in 1980, 1993, 1997 and 2001.”

The Domestic Political Violence Forecasting Model has Turkey as the 6th most likely to experience violence against government.

Indicators of negative sentiment is shown to lead uprisings, and consumer sentiment recently hit a 10 month low.

While everyone is focused on Europe, risks of a crises in China, Brazil, Indonesia, India, and Hong Kong will begin to take center stage.

If Europe, US, and Japan’s growth rates are hampered by massive debt, and leading emerging markets have credit bubble’s poised to pop, where will the global growth come from?

Further Reading :

Where’s the Next Crises in Emerging Markets? Let’s look at the Number One indicator–Credit Growth.

Turkey Most Vulnerable to Sudden Stop

Negative Sentiment in Mainstream Media Forecast Egyptian Unrest

Predicting Political Hotspots: Professors’ Global Model Forecasts Civil Unrest Against Governments

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